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Statistician

Providing a statistical consultancy service to researchers at Forest Research (both at Alice Holt and Northern Research Station) within three key areas:

  • Technical Skills – Providing up-to-date methodological expertise and analytical skills, using a range of innovative and modern statistical techniques and software
  • Quality Assurance – Actively encouraging the proportionate and consistent application of statistical quality assurance.
  • Knowledge exchange – Communicating and collaborating with Forest Research staff to provide statistical advice and to encourage the development of statistical literacy.

Jack Forster joined Forest Research as a research statistician in 2015, having previously worked as a statistician at the Home Office (2014-2015) and the Department of Energy and Climate Change (2012-2014). Jack received a 1st class Honours degree in Zoology from the University of Liverpool in 2008, and completed a PhD in theoretical ecology at Queen Mary University of London in 2012 , with specific focus on the response of growth rate and body size to increasing temperature in ectothermic organisms.

Affiliations

Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.

Statistician
Inventory, forecasting and operational support (IFOS)

Alice Holt

Alice Holt Lodge

Wrecclesham

Farnham

Surrey

Related Research

Research

Seed X-ray testing

Using digital X-rays to determine whether seeds are filled, empty, immature, and insect- or mechanically-damaged

Status current

Related Publications

Publication

Non-hazardous rapeseed oil spray adjuvants for Rhododendron ponticum shrub control

Non-hazardous rapeseed oil spray adjuvants do not improve the rainfastness or effectiveness of glyphosate for Rhododendron ponticum shrub control.

Published

Publication

The potential of the selective graminicides cycloxydim and propyzamide as habitat improvement tools for the pearl-bordered fritillary butterfly

The pearl-bordered fritillary (Boloria euphrosyne) is a resident UK butterfly which is in decline, partly because grasses can outcompete its preferred food plant, common dog-violet (Viola riviniana). We therefore investigated whether using graminicides could help to enhance the habitat quality of a violet-rich butterfly ride. Applications of 1.5 kg a.i. ha-1 propyzamide or 0.45 kg a.i. ha-1 cycloxydim both reduced grass cover and were associated with an increase in violet plants. Our work suggests that enhancing pearl-bordered fritillary habitat may not always be possible through herbicide use alone, but cycloxydim may have a useful role in helping to reduce competition from grasses.

Published
Metabarcoding reveals a high diversity of woody host-associated Phytophthora spp. in soils at public gardens and amenity woodlands in Britain

A study of Phytophthora diversity in public gardens and amenity woodlands through the use of metabarcoding of soil samples.

Are there viable chemical and non-chemical alternatives to the use of conventional insecticides for the protection of young trees from damage by the large pine weevil Hylobius abietis L. in UK forestry?

In UK forestry, the synthetic pyrethroid insecticides alpha-cypermethrin and cypermethrin have been used for many years to provide protection for young trees planted on restock sites from damage by the large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis L. However, concerns over the toxicity of these insecticides to aquatic life if misused has led to a search for alternative forms of protection. This paper describes a detailed programme of efficacy experiments undertaken between 2009 and 2014 to find replacements for these products. Over 50 combinations of chemical and non-chemical approaches were tested on 16 different sites.

The lifecycle of Agrilus biguttatus: the role of temperature in its development and distribution, and implications for Acute Oak Decline

The lifecycle of Agrilus biguttatus: the role of temperature in its development and distribution, and implications for Acute Oak Decline

Can direct seeding be used to enhance the restoration of native species to conifer plantations on ancient woodland sites?

Can direct seeding be used to enhance the restoration of native species to conifer plantations on ancient woodland sites?

Novel dendrochronological modelling demonstrates that decades of reduced stem growth predispose trees to Acute Oak Decline

• Novel dendrochronological modelling was developed to explore oak stem growth trends. • Trees with long-term AOD symptoms may have been predisposed many decades earlier. • Diseased trees struggle to take advantage of favourable growing conditions. • Historic episodes of stress may impact the future resilience of oaks to disturbance.

The herbicide cycloxydim is an effective alternative to propyzamide or glyphosate for the control of the forest grass weeds Molinia caerulea, Calamagrostis epigejos, Deschampsia flexuosa and Holcus lanatus

The herbicide cycloxydim is an effective alternative to propyzamide or glyphosate for the control of the forest grass weeds Molinia caerulea, Calamagrostis epigejos, Deschampsia flexuosa and Holcus lanatus.

Engagement with nature and Covid-19 restrictions Survey 2021: Key results

This summary report of a survey undertaken to explore engagement with nature during the Covid-19 restrictions highlights the important role of nature and woodlands in supporting people's wellbeing through the Covid pandemic.

Acetamiprid, chlorantraniliprole, and in some situations the physical barriers MultiPro® or Kvaae® wax, can be alternatives to traditional synthetic pyrethroid insecticides for the protection of young conifers from damage by the large pine weevil Hylobius

Acetamiprid, chlorantraniliprole, and in some situations the physical barriers MultiPro® or Kvaae® wax, can be alternatives to traditional synthetic pyrethroid insecticides for the protection of young conifers from damage by the large pine weevil Hylobius abietis L.

Direct seeding of birch, rowan and alder can be a viable technique for the restoration of upland native woodland in the UK

Direct seeding of birch, rowan and alder can be a viable technique for the restoration of upland native woodland in the UK

Trends in surface water chemistry in afforested Welsh catchments

Analysis of 22 years of water chemistry data from afforested Welsh catchments revealed trends indicative of recovery from acidification

Microbiome and infectivity studies reveal complex polyspecies tree disease in Acute Oak Decline

h3> Team work between Forest Research, Bangor University and others has for the first time, tracked down the cause of the stem bleeding symptoms of acute oak decline (AOD). Using the latest scientific methods they have revealed a multi-bacterial cause of the stem bleeding and pioneered novel methods for analysing the causes of complex plant diseases. AOD […]

Other Research

Social and Economic Research
Recent work includes analysis of questionnaire data associated with the monitoring and evaluation of projects with Kew Gardens (Grow Wild) and the Active Forests Programme.

Land Use and Ecosystem Services Research
Use of structural equation modelling (SEM) to analyse woodland creation and ecological networks (WrEN) in collaboration with the University of Stirling.

Forest Management Research
Analysis of experimental data from a range of trials focussing on vegetation management and reducing herbicide inputs.

Climate Change Research
Recent work includes assessment of tree model reconstruction from Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) readings.

Pests and diseases
Using mixed-effects models to assess potential multifactorial drivers of acute oak decline (AOD).

Peer reviewed journal articles

Hirst, A.G. and Forster, J., 2013. When growth models are not universal: evidence from marine invertebrates. Proc. R. Soc. B (Vol. 280, No. 1768, p. 20131546).

Forster, J., Hirst, A.G. and Atkinson, D., 2012. Warming-induced reductions in body size are greater in aquatic than terrestrial species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(47), pp.19310-19314.

Forster, J., Hirst, A.G. and Esteban, G.F., 2013. Achieving temperature-size changes in a unicellular organism. The ISME Journal, 7(1), pp.28-36.

Forster, J. and Hirst, A.G., 2012. The temperature‐size rule emerges from ontogenetic differences between growth and development rates. Functional Ecology, 26(2), pp.483-492.

Forster, J., Hirst, A.G. and Woodward, G., 2011. Growth and development rates have different thermal responses. The American Naturalist, 178(5), pp.668-678.

Forster, J., Hirst, A.G. and Atkinson, D., 2011. How do organisms change size with changing temperature? The importance of reproductive method and ontogenetic timing. Functional Ecology, 25(5), pp.1024-1031.

Reiss, J., Forster, J., Cassio, F., Pascoal, C., Stewart, R. and Hirst, A.G., 2010. When microscopic organisms inform general ecological theory. Advances in Ecological Research, 43, pp.45-85.

Official statistics
Immigration statistics quarterly release, January 2015 – December 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/immigration-statistics-quarterly-release

Digest of the United Kingdom Energy Statistics (DUKES) Gas Statistics, 2013 – 2014 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes

Energy Trends Gas Statistics, September 2013 – September 2014 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/energy-trends#2013

Other publications
Kerr, G., Forster, J. and Jinks, R. (2016) Summary of FR Seed Origin Trials on Low’s fir [Abies concolor var. lowiana (Gord.) Lemm.] FR Report, June 2016.

Parratt, M. J., Willoughby, I. and Forster, J. (2016) Cycloxydim and Propyzamide as potential habitat improvement tools for the Pearl-bordered Fritillary butterfly. FR Report June 2016.

Stokes. V, Forster, J. and Kerr, G. (2017) A comparison of Sitka x white spruce hybrids with QCI Sitka spruce. FR Report February 2017.

Determining labour shortages and the need for labour migration from third countries in the UK. European Migration Network Focused Study, Home Office Science, May 2015.

Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply in 2012. Department of Energy and Climate Change, March 2014. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-march-2014

Diversity of supply for oil and oil products in OECD countries. Department of Energy and Climate Change, September 2013. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-september-2013

Physical gas flows across Europe and security and diversity of gas supply in 2011. Department of Energy and Climate Change, June 2013. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-june-2013

Exploring the mechanism of how ectotherms change size with changing Temperature. Thesis submitted in accordance of the requirements of Queen Mary, University of London for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy, July 2012. https://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/7559/Forster_Jack_final_060712.pdf?sequence=1