Michal Petr, Bsc, MSc, PhD

Climate Change Researcher

Michal Petr

Email: michal.petr@forestry.gsi.gov.uk

Twitter: @MPetr81

ResearchGate: www.researchgate.net/profile/Michal_Petr2

Tel direct: +44 (0)300 067 5974
Fax: +44 (0)131 445 5124

Forest Research
Northern Research Station
Midlothian EH25 9SY

Michal obtained MSc degrees in GIS and Remote sensing at the Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic (2006) and in Geoinformatics at the Edinburgh University, Edinburgh, UK (2007). He obtained his PhD degree at the Twente University, the Netherlands (2014), in which he investigated uncertainty, risk, and climate change adaptation related to British forests. His current research mainly focuses on: understanding and influence of climate change on uncertainty in forest planning and adaptation, drought risk assessment of British forests, understanding of barriers for decision-making in forest planning, investigating resilience to biotic and abiotic threats in forest ecosystems, and horizon scanning of future threats.

Current role

Researcher (Climate change)

Investigates how uncertainty and risk influence forest planning decisions with the emphasis on climate change adaptation and quantification of climate change impacts. In addition, Michal explores approaches for quantitative risk assessment using probabilistic climate change projections (UKCP09) and explores new methods for better communication and synthesize of research findings into practice and policy making.

Current research

Climate Change Adaptation

  • Leading the development and implementation of a new climate change adaptation approach - Future Forest Management Pathways (FFMP), which helps to identify suitable adaptation options under deep uncertainty
  • Developing a model for Dothistroma needle blight impacts on pines, which is sensitive to climate change
  • Leading the task group on uncertainty review in climate change modelling studies, and contributing to climate change disturbance review and bridging the gap between stakeholders in the PROFOUND COST action
  • Coordinating forest ecosystem service assessment for forests in England under climate change

Resilience and risk perceptions

  • Developing forest resilience and recovery measures using historical Forest Condition Survey dataset (part of Future Proofing Plant Health DEFRA project) together with colleagues from JNCC
  • Exploring future biotic threats to oak ecosystems through horizon scanning and adaptive management pathways (part of protecting oak ecosystems (PuRpOsE) project - funded by BBSRC)
  • Developing approach for assessing landowners risk perception of Oak processionary moth (part of DEFRA "Landowner attitudes to risk and a risk-based approach to managing Oak Processionary Moth")


Main recent publications 

Ray, D., Petr, M., Mullett, M., Bathgate, S., Marchi, M., Beauchamp, K. (2017). A simulation-based approach to assess forest policy options under biotic and abiotic climate change impacts: A case study on Scotland’s National Forest Estate. For. Policy Econ. doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2017.10.010


Seidl, R., Thom, D., Kautz, M., Martin-Benito, D., Peltoniemi, M., Vacchiano, G., Wild, J., Ascoli, D., Petr, M., Honkaniemi, J., Lexer, M.J., Trotsiuk, V., Mairota, P., Svoboda, M., Fabrika, M., Nagel, T.A., Reyer, C.P.O. (2017). Forest disturbances under climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 7, 395–402. doi:10.1038/nclimate3303 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3303

Petr, M., Ray, D., 2017. Evaluating Options for Robust Forest Adaptation to Climate Change. Q. J. For. 111, 183–187.

Ray, D., Peace, A., Moore, R., Petr, M., Grieve, Y., Convery, C. & Ziesche, T. (2016). Improved prediction of the climate-driven outbreaks of Dendrolimus pini in Pinus sylvestris forests. Forestry 89, 230-244. doi:10.1093/forestry/cpw007 https://academic.oup.com/forestry/article/89/2/230/2465934

Petr, M., Boerboom, L. G. J., Ray, D., & van der Veen, A. (2015). Adapting Scotland’s forests to climate change using an action expiration chart. Environmental Research Letters, 10(10), 105005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105005 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105005

Petr, M., Boerboom, L., Ray, D., and van der Veen, A. (2015) New climate change information modifies frames and decisions of decision makers: an exploratory study in forest planning.  Regional Environmental Change.  Published online 24 July 2015. 

Petr, M. (2014, June 27). Climate change, uncertainty, and consequent risks: opportunities for forest management adaptation in Britain. Enschede, The Netherlands. PhD thesis, doi:10.3990/1.9789036536950,

Petr, M., Boerboom, L. G. J., van der Veen, A., & Ray, D. (2014). A spatial and temporal drought risk assessment of three major tree species in Britain using probabilistic climate change projections. Climatic Change, 124(4), 791–803. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1122-3,

Petr, Michal, Boerboom, L., Ray, D., & Van der Veen, A. (2014). An uncertainty assessment framework for forest planning adaptation to climate change. Forest Policy and Economics, 41, 1–11. doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2013.12.002

Mason, W., Petr, M., & Bathgate, S. (2012). Silvicultural strategies for adapting planted forests to climate change: from theory to practice. J. For. Sci, 2012(6), 265–277. Retrieved from http://www.agriculturejournals.cz/publicFiles/66812.pdf

Petr, M., Patenaude G. and Suárez, J.C. (2008). ‘Forest stand volume: can existing laser scanning methods based on the conventional one provide better results, a comparison of 2 approaches’. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography. Lars Bernard (Ed).